Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were confronted Tuesday with two developments that arrived publicly at nearly the same time but were produced on different timelines: an expected eighth caucus departure since the 2025 election, and a Nanos tracker putting the Liberals 22 points ahead nationally.
Global News reported that Parry Sound—Muskoka MP Scott Aitchison is expected to resign from Parliament, citing a source close to the former Conservative leadership candidate. The outlet said Aitchison informed Poilievre about his decision roughly a week earlier and could announce the move as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.
His actual departure is expected before the House rises for its December break.
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The report noted that Aitchison would be the eighth MP to leave Poilievre’s Conservative caucus since the April 2025 election. According to the outlet’s count, four former Conservative MPs moved to the Liberals, one left the House for an appointment to the Senate as an independent, and three, including Aitchison, have opted to leave politics.
Aitchison has not publicly provided a reason for the expected resignation. The source cited by Global said only that, after about three decades in elected office, he believed it was time to pursue something else.
The departure would also create a vacancy in a riding the Conservatives won by less than 10 percentage points last year. Elections Canada data shows Aitchison received 33,742 votes, or 52.2%, in Parry Sound—Muskoka in the April 28, 2025 election. Liberal candidate Geordie Sabbagh received 27,563 votes, or 42.6%.
The caucus news arrived the same day Nanos Research released its latest federal tracking, with the Liberals at 49.9% among ballot respondents and the Conservatives at 27.9%. The NDP stood at 11.0%, producing a 22.0-point Liberal lead.
One week earlier, Nanos had the Liberals at 48.1% and Conservatives at 31.0%, a 17.1-point gap.
Carney also reached 61.5% as the preferred choice for prime minister in the latest tracker, while Poilievre registered 19.6%.
Nanos released the survey September 29, but its tracking period ended September 25, before the Aitchison reporting surfaced.
