Russian crude oil exports by sea experienced a substantial decline of up to 980,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the week ending June 25. However, experts suggest that this decrease is more likely due to maintenance work rather than a deliberate reduction in Russia’s crude oil production.
Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg revealed that weekly crude shipments from Russian export terminals fell by nearly 1 million bpd to 2.55 million bpd in the aforementioned week.
On a four-week average basis, crude oil shipments decreased by approximately 263,000 bpd during the four weeks leading up to June 25. Analyst Julian Lee from Bloomberg says that the recent plunge in exports is likely to be a temporary occurrence.
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The most significant decline occurred in the crude cargoes loading and departing from the Baltic port of Primorsk, accounting for over half of the week-on-week fall in Russia’s total seaborne crude exports. Shipments dropped by 521,000 bpd or 56% compared to the previous week.
Bloomberg notes that the same behavior was spotted during the same week last year, and just a week earlier in 2020 and 2021. Data for these last three years show that shipments bounced back the following week.
A big drop in shipments was also noted in the Pacific port of Kozmino, where shipments were down by 314,000 bpd. But it’s also unlikely that this drop is due to an output cut, and a gap in this port’s loading program also suggests that it’s also just a temporary dip.
The drop in shipments reflected a slump of $15 million or 28% in Russia’s export revenue, earning only $39 million in crude-export duty. The four-week average income is pushed down to $52 million, or $2 million less than the previous period.
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