Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% on Friday in a bid to combat rising inflation and an overheating economy. This decision marks the highest borrowing cost in over two years, reflecting the bank’s urgent efforts to stabilize the economy.
The last time the rate was this high was in April 2022, when the Bank of Russia reacted to the immediate economic fallout from the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine by raising rates to 20%.
The Bank of Russia, in its statement, underscored the necessity of this drastic hike, citing accelerating inflation that is outpacing its April forecasts.
“Inflation has accelerated and is developing significantly above the Bank of Russia’s April forecast. Growth in domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services,” the bank stated.
The regulator also revised its inflation forecast for 2024, raising it to 6.5–7.0%, with a target to reduce it to 4.0–4.5% by 2025.
Economists anticipated this hike, as revealed by a Reuters poll, though there were voices within the Russian elite advocating for a more cautious approach. The central bank acknowledged that returning inflation to its target would necessitate “considerably tighter monetary conditions than presumed earlier.” The bank indicated that further rate increases might be on the horizon, depending on upcoming economic evaluations.
The central bank’s decision comes amidst an “upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path,” driven by labor shortages and the ongoing expansion of retail and corporate lending. This economic overheating has prompted the central bank to revise its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5%-4.0%, up from the previous 2.5%-3.5%.
Prior to the rate announcement, the Kremlin acknowledged the varied perspectives on the economy’s overheating, stating, “various views regarding the overheating of the economy” exist, but assured that “necessary measures are being taken.”
The aggressive rate hikes in the second half of 2023, including an emergency hike in August, were in response to the ruble’s dramatic depreciation, which saw it plunge past 100 to the dollar. Inflation remains the central bank’s primary concern, with current rates at 9.18%, well above the target of 4%. Although this is an improvement from the 11.9% inflation rate in 2022, it is still significantly higher than the 7.4% recorded in 2023.
Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank of Russia, is set to address the media at 1200 GMT, potentially shedding more light on the central bank’s strategy and future actions. The next rate decision is scheduled for September 13.
Information for this briefing was found via Reuters and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
