Snap Election Likely, Carney Avoids NDP Talks on Government Extension
Mark Carney’s team has not reached out to the New Democratic Party about extending the current government, increasing the likelihood of an early federal election, according to NDP sources.
The incoming Liberal leader, set to be sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister this week, faces immediate pressure from opposition parties. Parliament remains prorogued until March 24, but political analysts expect Carney may call an election before the House of Commons reconvenes.
“No outreach from Carney’s team at all,” an unnamed NDP source told iPolitics. The source indicated their party wants Parliament recalled to pass support measures for workers affected by recent US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Last week, President Trump implemented a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods and a 10% levy on Canadian energy before temporarily pausing some duties. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has called for immediate parliamentary action to create worker protections and support packages.
“That means working people could face mass layoffs and higher prices with no protections or supports,” the NDP source warned if Carney proceeds to an election without recalling Parliament.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent months. The Liberals have erased a nearly 30-point polling deficit against the Conservatives in less than two months amid leadership changes and Trump’s trade actions.
Read: Trump Pushes Surge in Canadian Liberal Support, Polls Show
According to 338Canada, current projections show the Conservatives winning 156 seats – enough for a minority government under Pierre Poilievre – while the Liberals would secure 143 seats. The NDP trails significantly, polling at 15% with an expected 14 seats.
Any federal election must occur before October 20, but Liberal sources suggest Carney is highly likely to seek his own mandate soon. One Liberal insider estimated “a 99.9% chance” of an early election.
The NDP previously supported the Liberal government through a supply-and-confidence agreement negotiated with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2022, which included policy commitments on dental care, pharmacare, and worker protections. That agreement collapsed when Singh withdrew last September, though the NDP continued supporting the government through the fall session.
The party has already prepared campaign infrastructure, including pre-election advertisements, campaign buses, and an airplane, in anticipation of a potential snap election.
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