In a tightly contested federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has emerged victorious but failed to secure a majority, triggering political fragmentation, party infighting, and market turbulence as Canada prepares for what many analysts are calling a short-lived Parliament.

With 343 of 343 seats reporting, the Liberals secured 168 seats, falling 4 short of the 172 needed for a majority. The Conservatives surged to 144 seats, significantly outperforming pre-election expectations. Meanwhile, Bloc Québécois (23), NDP (7), and the Green Party (1) now hold the balance of power in a deeply divided House of Commons.

The popular vote reflected this narrow divide, with the Liberals garnering roughly 43.5% and the Conservatives following closely with just over 41.4%. The NDP trailed distantly at around 6.3%, while the Bloc Québécois polled near 6.4%.

Despite the loss, the Conservatives claimed a psychological victory. They entered the race expecting 124 seats and came out with 144.

In his concession speech, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre emphasized the strategic victory within the defeat, highlighting the success in preventing the Liberals and NDP from forming an easy coalition.

“Canadians have opted for a razor-thin minority government,” Poilievre said. “We’ve gained well over 20 seats. We got the highest share of vote our party has received since 1988.”

The election caught prediction markets off guard. On Kalshi, traders priced an 81% chance for a Liberal victory just hours before polls closed, far from the initial bets.

The Conservatives: The long game

While the Conservatives failed to seize government, their electoral gains were undeniable. They increased their seat count by more than twenty compared to 2021 and reestablished themselves as a dominant political force capable of competing nationally. Their success extended beyond traditional strongholds, making inroads into suburban Ontario, parts of the Maritimes, and even liberal urban centers that had once seemed invulnerable.

Poilievre’s post-election remarks carefully positioned the outcome as a win, emphasizing that his party had redrawn the electoral map and set the stage for what many strategists now predict will be a new election within the next twelve to twenty-four months. 

Despite the outward momentum, the Conservative Party is already consumed by internal conflict. Within minutes of the election results being broadcast, prominent Conservative figures and grassroots supporters launched public attacks against Ontario Premier Doug Ford, accusing him of undermining Poilievre’s campaign.

Ezra Levant, founder of Rebel News, publicly vowed to do everything possible to prevent Ford from becoming federal Conservative leader. Jamil Jivani, a media personality aligned with the party’s populist wing, unleashed scathing criticism against Ford’s centrism, a move political columnist Bruce Arthur likened to bringing a flamethrower to the Conservative leadership struggle.

NDP collapse

Reduced to just 7 seats, the NDP suffered a historic setback, prompting leader Jagmeet Singh to announce his resignation immediately following the results. Once seen as a potential kingmaker, the NDP was punished by voters for its perceived complicity in propping up the Liberal government during the previous parliament.

In contrast, the Bloc Québécois emerged revitalized at first. Initially forecast to win 25 seats, despite losing seats it appeared that they would become kingmaker before further Liberal gains were announced, while the Bloc’s count was reduced to 23.

Too fast, too surge?

Financial markets responded immediately and harshly to the fractured political outcome. Gold priced in Canadian dollars spiked to an all-time high of 4,602.94, up more than 75% from two years ago.

The energy sector, particularly in Alberta, reacted with alarm. With anticipation that the new government may reject all key demands from the oil and gas sector, fears of federal hostility toward Western Canada have reignited discussions of separatism and economic alienation.

Criticism erupted not only about the results but also about the speed with which the election was called by media outlets. Several commentators and political operatives accused CBC and CTV of declaring a Liberal victory too early, despite many tight races across the country.

Some online voices compared the situation to a national act of assisted suicide, with phrases like “Canada just chose to MAID itself”, referencing the controversial Medical Assistance In Dying policy as a metaphor for national decline.

Information for this briefing was found via Al Jazeera and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.