Citigroup on Monday raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce, up from $3,300, arguing that the US economic outlook is turning decisively negative.
The bank also widened its expected trading band to $3,300–$3,600, compared with the prior $3,100–$3,500 range.
“US growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” the analyst noted.
Last week’s tariff package from President Donald Trump—covering exports from US trading partners like Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan—has magnified those inflation risks, with the levies likely to stay in place during negotiations.
Macro data are reinforcing the bid. July non-farm payrolls rose by just 73,000, and June’s figure was revised down to 14,000. Markets now price an 81% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Citi estimates gross gold demand has risen more than one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices by Q2 2025. The bank credits robust investor inflows, steady central-bank buying, and surprisingly resilient jewellery demand despite record prices.
Spot gold touched $3,356.88 per ounce, then hovered near $3,360 in its intraday peak as some traders locked in gains. COMEX futures edged up to $3,412.31.
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