Donald Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, suspending attacks on the condition that Tehran fully and immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. The announcement, made via Truth Social, marks a rare de-escalation in tensions between the two nations after months of heightened conflict.
In his statement on the platform, Trump emphasized the bilateral nature of the truce, calling it a ‘double-sided ceasefire’ dependent on Iran’s compliance with opening the vital waterway. The Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, has been a flashpoint amid recent hostilities, with its closure threatening energy markets and global trade. Trump’s decision follows discussions with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir, suggesting regional mediation played a role in brokering the temporary halt.
A parallel development points to potential for broader resolution. Trump described Iran’s 10-point proposal as a ‘workable basis’ for negotiations, asserting that nearly all contentious issues have been addressed. This signals that a long-term peace agreement could be on the horizon if both sides sustain the current momentum.
The ceasefire’s immediate focus remains the Strait of Hormuz, where any disruption could ripple through energy markets already strained by geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply in recent weeks, with traders bracing for volatility if Iran fails to meet the terms within the two-week window. The U.S. has long viewed the strait as a non-negotiable priority, given its strategic importance to allies in the Gulf and beyond.
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Pakistan’s involvement adds a layer of diplomatic complexity. While the specifics of the talks with Sharif and Munir remain undisclosed, their influence appears to have nudged Trump toward a pause in military action. This aligns with broader efforts by regional players to stabilize the Middle East amid fears of a wider conflict.
The next 14 days will test the durability of this truce. Market participants are closely tracking tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with data showing a 20% drop in transits during the peak of recent tensions. Any failure to restore full access by the deadline could reignite hostilities and send Brent crude prices above $80 per barrel, a threshold last breached in late 2025.
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