The United States is grappling with a severe shortage of rare earth elements, holding just two months of supplies critical for military use, a situation that could limit Washington’s ability to sustain operations in conflicts like potential strikes on Iran.
These elements, vital for missile guidance systems, fighter jets, and radar technologies, have exposed a glaring vulnerability in US defense capabilities. With China dominating over half of global mine supply and nearly all processing capacity, Washington’s reliance on Beijing has turned into a strategic liability amid escalating Middle East tensions. Analysts warn that any restriction on exports by China could directly impact the duration and cost of US military engagements.
This supply crunch arrives as President Donald Trump prepares for a pivotal trip to China later in March 2026, his first since 2017. Beijing, however, appears to hold the upper hand, with less immediate pressure to negotiate rare earth trade terms given the current geopolitical landscape. China’s control over these supply chains could translate into significant leverage over global power dynamics.
Efforts to counter this dependency are underway, but progress is slow. The Trump administration has rolled out a $12 billion initiative to stockpile critical minerals, including rare earths, while forging alliances to establish alternative trade blocs. Yet, new projects outside China are unlikely to scale up fast enough to avert shortages, potentially ceding pricing power to a handful of dominant producers.
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China, meanwhile, is doubling down on its position. Under its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, Beijing aims to bolster its rare earth industry and tighten export controls, a move that could further entrench its influence over materials essential for defense, electronics, and clean energy systems.
Compounding the issue, last year’s export restrictions by China already forced Western manufacturers into a frantic search for alternative supplies to meet production deadlines. The US Geological Survey notes that China remains the largest supplier of many critical minerals to the US, a dependency that shows no immediate signs of easing.
The stakes are clear as the US navigates this supply crisis. With rare earth stockpiles dwindling to a mere 60 days for military needs, the pressure to secure alternative sources has never been more urgent.
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