US Farm Outlook Hits Historic Low as Major Crops Face Losses
For the first time in its 42-year history, the Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University reports none of its representative farms across four major commodity types are projected to generate positive cash flow over the next five years.
The analysis, covering feed grains, cotton, rice, and wheat operations, represents the center’s worst crop outlook since it began monitoring farm financial performance in 1983. The AFPC maintains data from 64 crop and 28 livestock operations across 30 states to help craft agricultural legislation and provide early warning signals about sector conditions.
Unlike previous economic downturns when farmers could switch to more profitable crops based on market signals, the current situation offers no viable alternatives. Using price projections from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, the analysis shows very few representative farms will remain profitable at projected prices for the 2025/26 marketing year.
While the American Relief Act of 2025 provides some immediate disaster assistance, researchers emphasize the urgent need for enhanced farm safety net programs to address the crisis.
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