Venezuela Exports Surge To 800k BPD But Output Recovery Still Constrained

  • The January rebound was driven less by fresh supply and more by a rapid release of trapped inventories once US licensing re-opened trading, shipping, and destination optionality.

Venezuela’s crude and fuel exports jumped to about 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, a month-on-month increase of 302,000 bpd or about 60.6%, according to shipping data amplified by traders’ sales.

The export bounce followed the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and the end of a December oil blockade that had sharply restricted liftings.

The December blockade included a US embargo and the seizure of seven tankers, producing a logjam of more than 40 million barrels of crude and fuel stranded across onshore tanks and vessels, which in turn forced PDVSA to cut output in early January.

Once the Treasury Department issued the first export licenses to Trafigura and Vitol in January, shipping data showed production, processing, and loadings accelerating, with exports returning near historical operating range rather than reflecting a structural production step-change.

Even at 800,000 bpd, January exports were still below the 847,000 bpd average reported for last year by about 47,000 bpd or roughly 5.5%.

A key distribution shift was destination mix: the US was the largest single-country destination in January at about 284,000 bpd, representing 35.5% of total exports for the month.

Within that US-bound flow, Chevron shipped about 220,000 bpd, up sharply from 99,000 bpd sent the prior month, meaning Chevron accounted for roughly 77.5% of Venezuela’s US receipts in January by volume.

Meanwhile, Vitol and Trafigura together exported about 12 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil in January, equivalent to about 392,000 bpd or 49.0% of the month’s total exports, with many cargoes routed first to storage terminals in the Caribbean before being marketed onward. 

Policy throughput continued to loosen after January: the Treasury issued a broad license authorizing business between US companies and PDVSA covering export, storage, transport, and refining, while PDVSA partners awaited individual licenses to expand operations.


Information for this story was found via Reuters and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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