Alberta set a new oil production record in 2025, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day and surpassing the previous year’s output by 4.2%, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator’s most recent data.
The province produced more than 1.5 billion barrels total last year, driven primarily by expanded pipeline capacity following the Trans Mountain expansion project.
The expansion, completed in 2024, increased the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day from 300,000 barrels previously. The additional export capacity enabled Alberta to ship more oil to Asian markets, with exports reaching over $1.1 billion by October 2025.
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South Bow and Enbridge have signaled plans to increase capacity further, while Trans Mountain appears likely to pursue additional expansion with support from Alberta and British Columbia.
ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons projects oil and gas exports will grow around 2% annually in both 2026 and 2027, fueled mainly by Asian demand.
“I think it’s really important to highlight the consistency in the production increases,” Parsons said. “We had a dip in 2020 because of COVID-19, and then we had a setback with curtailment in 2018 and 2019, but other than that, it’s been an upward trajectory for the industry.”
Parsons warned pipeline capacity will eventually constrain output growth without new infrastructure, likely in the late 2020s or early 2030s, even after planned expansions.
Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean emphasized the need for additional pipelines. “We need to increase capacity and build new pipelines to avoid bottlenecks in the system which will hurt the value of our oil and trading confidence in our ability to deliver,” Jean said in a statement.
Oil sands operations accounted for 84% of Alberta’s 2025 production, according to ATB Financial analysis. The province holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves at 158.9 billion barrels.
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