Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Projects 3.7% GDP Contraction in First Quarter

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model is now projecting a 3.7% contraction in US economic activity for the first quarter of 2025, according to data released on April 1.

The estimate represents a significant deterioration from the -2.9% reading reported just days earlier on March 28, suggesting rapidly worsening economic conditions as the quarter concluded.

The Atlanta Fed’s tracking chart also displays a “Gold adjusted GDPNow” calculation that shows a slightly less severe contraction than the headline figure. This alternative measure, implemented on March 6, 2025, specifically adjusts for the volatile effects of gold imports and exports on GDP calculations by subtracting gold trade from the balance of payments measures.

“Gold trading can create significant volatility in economic data without reflecting underlying economic activity,” the Fed explains in its technical documentation. The adjustment involves sophisticated statistical modeling to separate gold-related fluctuations from broader economic trends, providing policymakers with an alternative view of growth patterns.

“After this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau and incorporation of the available March data into the model’s dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from Institute for Supply Management and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard models and the alternative models forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined,” the Atlanta Fed explained.

The GDPNow model, which aggregates statistical forecasts from 13 subcomponents, serves as a running estimate of GDP growth prior to the official Bureau of Economic Analysis report. The Atlanta Fed emphasizes that it is not an official forecast and does not capture the potential impacts of recent economic events beyond the statistical model’s parameters.

The next GDPNow update is scheduled for Thursday, April 3.


Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Video Articles

The Goal is Gold Production as Soon as Possible! | Gordon Robb – ESGOLD Corp.

Snowline Gold: The Multi Billion Dollar Valley PEA

Euro Sun: Rovina Copper-Gold Project Secures Some Major Funding

Recommended

Antimony Resources Drills 4.17% Antimony Over 7.4 Metres At Bald Hill

ESGold To Expand Mine Building At Montauban In Advance Of Gold & Silver Production

Related News

“Sharpest Decline In Earnings Outlook Since 2020” Signals Recession Ahead — Report

The US economy is hurtling toward a stagflationary recession, according to a report by Apollo...

Monday, April 28, 2025, 12:01:00 PM

The Signal Leak Story Just Keeps Getting Worse

National security experts and lawmakers are raising alarms over potential intelligence compromises after Trump administration...

Monday, March 31, 2025, 03:01:00 PM

IMF Says 2023 Will Be World Economy’s “Darkest Hour”

The International Monetary Fund predicts that world economic growth will contract from 3.2% in 2022 to...

Thursday, October 13, 2022, 02:12:00 PM

Trump Eyes Defense Production Act to Break China’s Rare Earth Grip

The Trump administration is weighing the use of the Defense Production Act to funnel loans...

Friday, June 13, 2025, 12:58:00 PM

Global Food Prices Plummet by Most Since 2008

Despite assurances from government officials and central bank policy makers that inflation was going to...

Monday, August 8, 2022, 04:36:00 PM