BMO Lifts GFL Environmental Price Target To $46 After Strong Results

This month, GFL Environmental Inc. (TSX: GFL) reported its third quarter financial results. The company reported revenues of $1.48 billion, up 43% year over year, along with its highest gross margins in 11 quarters at 13%, while operating margin was reported at 4.8%. The company’s net income meanwhile was -$245 million, or a -$0.71 earnings per share.

But adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.22 and adjusted EBITDA was $415.8 million, or a 28% margin. Additionally, the company raised some of its full-year 2021 guidance. They now expect revenue to be $5.39 billion, up from the $5.225 billion prior, while adjusted EBITDA is now guided to be $1.44 billion, up from $1.4 billion.

After the results, a number of analysts raised their 12-month price target bringing the consensus to C$47.63, up from the C$45.15 before the results. GFL Environmental has 12 analysts covering the stock with 2 analysts having strong buy ratings, 7 have buys, 2 have hold ratings and a single analyst has a strong sell rating. The street high comes from CIBC Capital Markets with a C$58 price target while the lowest comes in at C$32.

In BMO Capital Markets’ earnings review note, they reiterate their outperform rating on the stock and raised their 12-month price target to C$46 from C$42, saying that the environment around GFL’s businesses remains favourable.

For the quarter, the company beat all of BMO’s estimates, with BMO forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $379 million. Adjusted free cash flow meanwhile came in at $250 million, almost $100 million higher than BMO’s $166 million estimate. BMO says that the reason their estimates were so low came from estimating lower waste margins and higher growth in that same segment.

BMO believes that GFL Environmental is well-positioned for another bout of organic growth in 2022. They say that there will be a “recovery catch-up” in Canada, while any M&A or potential projects at their landfills are not included in their forecasts. During the call, GFL’s management indicated an additional $50-$100 million of revenue before the year-end. BMO believes that GFL will look for more M&A as the sector has been running hot for some time.

Below you can see BMO’s updated fourth quarter, 2021 and 2022 estimates.

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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