Do people still even want to move to Canada?
Recent data from the Government of Canada (GoC) has revealed a significant decline in permanent resident applications, raising concerns about the sustainability of Canada’s population growth.
In July, the number of permanent resident applications plummeted by 15%, totaling around 17,800, marking a 28% drop compared to the previous year. This decline in applications has come as a surprise, considering the previous trajectory of record growth.
Before this sudden drop, Canada was on course to achieve record-breaking growth, with around 181,300 applications processed year-to-date as of July, representing a 15% increase over the previous year. However, the past two months have shown that this growth can change rapidly, with year-to-date applications growing at a slower rate of 15%, compared to the earlier 31%.
One of the key programs aimed at attracting skilled labor, the Express Entry program, has also witnessed a slowdown. July saw a 17.5% decrease in Express Entry applications compared to the previous year, with annual growth in the second quarter at just 8.3%, nearly half the rate of the first quarter.
While Canada’s population continues to grow, there are concerns about the retention of temporary residents. While many temporary residents arrive through programs like study permits, the data shows that they are less inclined to pursue permanent residency.
In 2022, only around 19,700 individuals with study permits transitioned to permanent residency, indicating that the odds are about 1 in 34.
Canada’s approach to population growth is under scrutiny, as it appears to prioritize short-term gains over long-term retention. Despite the population boom, per capita GDP is contracting, and the economy is not offering the expected opportunities. This has led to questions about Canada’s strategy of issuing visas to meet quarterly growth targets without sufficient focus on retaining immigrants.
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