Canada’s Liberals Surge to 6-Point Lead Under Carney, Ipsos Poll Finds
Canada’s Liberal Party has expanded its lead over the opposition Conservatives, according to an Ipsos poll released this week, as new leader Mark Carney continues to boost the party’s electoral prospects.
The poll showed the Liberals with 42% support among decided voters, up 4 percentage points, while the Conservatives remained unchanged at 36% and the New Democratic Party fell 2 points to 10%.
Polling aggregator 338Canada shows the Liberals potentially winning 178 seats — above the 170 needed for a majority in the House of Commons. The projection gives the Conservatives 130 seats, with the remaining seats divided among smaller parties.
According to 338Canada, this marks the first time in the current parliament that the chances of a Liberal majority have risen above 50%, with their model showing a 55% probability of a Liberal majority if an election were held today.
“The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval,” wrote Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs in the report. “In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.”
The poll showed Carney as the preferred choice for prime minister at 42%, leading Conservative leader Poilievre at 32% and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 12%.
Read: Poilievre Vows to Scrap Industrial Carbon Pricing Amid Falling Poll Numbers
Public perception of the Liberal government has also improved significantly. The percentage of Canadians who believe the “Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election” rose to 42%, up 19 points since December 2024, before Carney assumed leadership.
The Liberals hold commanding advantages in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec, with particularly strong support among women, voters aged 55 and older, and university graduates.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois trails the Liberals by 15 percentage points, with the separatist party at 27% in the province.
The online poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians from March 14-17 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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There will be 343 seats in the House of Commons now (an increase of 5 seats over the 338) so a party needs 172 , not 170, to get a majority.