Canadian visits to the United States fell 21% in 2025 — the equivalent of 4.2 million fewer visitors and $4.5 billion in lost spending — and data from the first months of 2026 show the decline accelerating, with no sign of recovery in sight.
The drop is the largest sustained pullback from a single country in modern US tourism history. Canadians were the top source of international visitors to the US in 2024, accounting for more than 20 million arrivals. The collapse began after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods in early 2025 and has hardened with each escalation since.
Statistics Canada data released March 10 shows Canadian return trips from the US fell 14.5% in February 2026 compared to the same month a year earlier — and 31.5% compared to February 2024, before trade tensions took hold. January 2026 data showed a 22% year-over-year decline — the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year drops. Land travel has been hit hardest, down 33% since April 2025, which matters because road crossings account for more than two-thirds of all Canadian trips to the US.
The economic damage
A March 2026 analysis by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that by mid-2025, establishments in areas most dependent on Canadian visitors were employing roughly 6% fewer workers than comparable businesses in less-exposed markets — with spillover effects suggesting even larger total employment losses.
The damage is visible across industries and geographies. Las Vegas finished 2025 with its lowest visitor count since 2010, excluding COVID years. Canadian airline capacity to Las Vegas was cut by 82,000 seats in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
In Western New York, 3.6 million fewer travelers crossed from Canada compared to the prior period, gutting retail and leisure businesses along the border. The Adirondacks region reported $14 million in losses. Myrtle Beach cut resort prices 50% for Canadian visitors after reporting a 30% drop in arrivals.
Cultural institutions are among the hardest hit. Scott Stulen, director of the Seattle Art Museum, told The Art Newspaper that Canadian visits to Seattle are down 50%. The John and Mable Ringling Museum of Art in Sarasota saw Canadian visitors fall 59% in January and 49% in February year-over-year. The Portland Museum of Art in Maine reported a 56% drop in Canadian visitors in 2025.
Airlines are responding accordingly. Air Transat is ending all US flights by June 2026. According to aviation analytics firm OAG, WestJet has cut US capacity by 19%, Flair by 58%, and Air Canada by 7%.
This is not a dip
Surveys show that the decline is behavioral, not circumstantial. Between 59% and 62% of Canadians now say US government policies and political rhetoric make them significantly less likely to visit — a figure that has remained stable across multiple polling firms, including Leger and Longwoods International.
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In contrast, Canadian overseas trips rose 9.2% in 2025, with Mexico and Europe the primary beneficiaries. As RBC Economics noted, Canadian domestic tourism GDP grew an annualized 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as the broader Canadian economy contracted 0.6%. Accommodation and dining spending within Canada rose 5.6% for the year. TL;DR: Canadians are still traveling, it’s just that the US is no longer the default place to go.
“In my 37 years in the travel industry, I have never seen anything like what the Canadians have pulled off,” one industry veteran told Forbes.
Information for this story was found via Bloomberg, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
