Conservatives have fallen to their lowest level since Liaison Strategies began its current federal tracking series, extending a month-long decline even as competing polls continue to disagree sharply over the depth and demographic shape of the party’s weakness.
The Liaison Strategies tracker released Sunday puts the Liberals at 46% among decided and leaning voters, compared with 28% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 15%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Greens and People’s Party at 2% each, and other parties at 1%.
The 28% Conservative result is a new low in Liaison’s series dating to March 2025. The party had previously bottomed at 29% on August 31 and again on September 28. Its support has fallen from 32% to 28% across the past three weekly updates, while Liberal support remained at 46% in the latest week.
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The survey also shows a deteriorating personal picture for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. His favourable rating fell two points to 34%, while 53% viewed him unfavourably. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval, meanwhile, rose to 66%, from 64% in the previous Liaison release.
The largest demographic gaps appear among women and younger Canadians. Liaison puts the Liberals ahead 52% to 23% among women. Among respondents aged 18 to 34, Liberals lead at 37%, while Conservatives are at 25% and the NDP at 24%.
That youth result, however, is where the polling picture becomes considerably less clear. Abacus Data surveyed Canadians from September 18 to 23 and found Conservatives leading among 18- to 29-year-olds at 42%, versus 32% for the Liberals. Abacus put overall Conservative support at 34%, six points above Liaison’s latest figure. Its Liberals were also at 46%.
Nanos Research, meanwhile, reported Liberal support at roughly 50% and Conservative support at about 28% in its four-week rolling sample ending September 25, placing its national result much closer to Liaison’s.
Liaison surveyed 1,526 Canadians from September 20 through October 3 using random-digit-dial IVR calls to landlines and mobile phones.
