Young Canadians are facing the worst job market outside a recession in decades — and backing the governing party by a 10-point margin.
The Abacus Data federal poll conducted April 30 to May 5 shows the Liberals at 46% nationally, the Conservatives at 36%. Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, the Liberals lead 45% to 35% — a gap that widens with age, reaching 54% to 32% among voters 60 and over.
Statistics Canada’s April Labour Force Survey, released May 8, shows the unemployment rate for Canadians aged 15 to 24 rose to 14.3% — more than double the national rate of 6.9%. Teens aged 15 to 19 face a 20.2% unemployment rate in Q1 2026. A Fraser Institute report described the surge as “unprecedented for an economy not in recession,” noting Canada’s youth unemployment jumped 57% in three years — a pace exceeding the early years of every recession since the 1980s.
The Trump Effect
Abacus finds Donald Trump and his administration ranking second only to cost of living among top voter concerns, with 41% citing it among their top three issues. The rally-around-the-flag dynamic against US tariffs and annexation rhetoric appears to be overriding dissatisfaction with domestic economic conditions — especially among younger voters.
The Liberals entered 2026 statistically tied with the Conservatives. Since January — when Trump renewed tariff threats, and Carney returned from Davos with a high international profile — Liberal support has risen from roughly 43% to 46%. Conservative support has remained flat in the mid-to-high 30s throughout.
The Conservatives have not broken above 40% nationally since before the 2025 federal election, when Poilievre lost his own Carleton riding by nearly 4,000 votes. An Angus Reid poll from mid-April placed Poilievre’s net favourability at -17% nationally, -24% in Quebec, -30% in Atlantic Canada. Thirty percent of Conservative voters now favour a leadership change, up from 18% last August.
Related: Conservative Voters Wane on Poilievre as 30% Call for New Leadership
What Carney Has, and Poilievre Doesn’t
Carney holds a net +22 favourability nationally — positive across every region and demographic, and government approval has reached a new high of 57%, with just 28% disapproving. Poilievre sits at -7. Among those most certain to vote, the Liberal advantage widens to 11 points.
Related: Poilievre Vows to Stay, But His Party Isn’t So Sure
While cost of living — Poilievre’s central pitch — remains the top concern for 65% of Canadians, the Liberals have absorbed much of its salience by framing Canada’s economic challenges as externally imposed by Trump. On managing Canada-US relations, Carney leads Poilievre by 16 percentage points.
Youth unemployment — the most concrete domestic indictment of Liberal economic management — has not yet become the political liability it might be in a different political environment.
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