Young Canadians are facing the worst job market outside a recession in decades — and backing the governing party by a 10-point margin.
The Abacus Data federal poll conducted April 30 to May 5 shows the Liberals at 46% nationally, the Conservatives at 36%. Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, the Liberals lead 45% to 35% — a gap that widens with age, reaching 54% to 32% among voters 60 and over.
Statistics Canada’s April Labour Force Survey, released May 8, shows the unemployment rate for Canadians aged 15 to 24 rose to 14.3% — more than double the national rate of 6.9%. Teens aged 15 to 19 face a 20.2% unemployment rate in Q1 2026. A Fraser Institute report described the surge as “unprecedented for an economy not in recession,” noting Canada’s youth unemployment jumped 57% in three years — a pace exceeding the early years of every recession since the 1980s.
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The Trump Effect
Abacus finds Donald Trump and his administration ranking second only to cost of living among top voter concerns, with 41% citing it among their top three issues. The rally-around-the-flag dynamic against US tariffs and annexation rhetoric appears to be overriding dissatisfaction with domestic economic conditions — especially among younger voters.
The Liberals entered 2026 statistically tied with the Conservatives. Since January — when Trump renewed tariff threats, and Carney returned from Davos with a high international profile — Liberal support has risen from roughly 43% to 46%. Conservative support has remained flat in the mid-to-high 30s throughout.
The Conservatives have not broken above 40% nationally since before the 2025 federal election, when Poilievre lost his own Carleton riding by nearly 4,000 votes. An Angus Reid poll from mid-April placed Poilievre’s net favourability at -17% nationally, -24% in Quebec, -30% in Atlantic Canada. Thirty percent of Conservative voters now favour a leadership change, up from 18% last August.
Related: Conservative Voters Wane on Poilievre as 30% Call for New Leadership
What Carney Has, and Poilievre Doesn’t
Carney holds a net +22 favourability nationally — positive across every region and demographic, and government approval has reached a new high of 57%, with just 28% disapproving. Poilievre sits at -7. Among those most certain to vote, the Liberal advantage widens to 11 points.
Related: Poilievre Vows to Stay, But His Party Isn’t So Sure
While cost of living — Poilievre’s central pitch — remains the top concern for 65% of Canadians, the Liberals have absorbed much of its salience by framing Canada’s economic challenges as externally imposed by Trump. On managing Canada-US relations, Carney leads Poilievre by 16 percentage points.
Youth unemployment — the most concrete domestic indictment of Liberal economic management — has not yet become the political liability it might be in a different political environment.
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