Elon Musk’s Saturday declaration that he is founding the America Party may prove more than a billionaire’s whim. A preliminary Quantus Insights survey fielded June 30–July 2 found that 40% of US adults say they are at least “somewhat likely” to back a Musk-led third party, including a striking 14% who are “very likely.”
Support was strongest among male Republicans and nearly half of independent men, while older voters and most Democrats were skeptical. The numbers give Musk a plausible base from which to confront the “one-party system” he blames for swelling the deficit to $2.5 trillion under President Donald Trump’s newly signed One Big Beautiful Bill.
“By a factor of 2-to-1, you want a new political party and you shall have it,” he told 180 million followers on X, casting the America Party as the vehicle to “give you back your freedom.”
The announcement rattled investors who worry the Tesla chief will divert attention from the company. Azoria Partners postponed the launch of a Tesla ETF, demanding “clarity” on Musk’s priorities after he quit government service in May. Tesla stock, which hit $488 in December on Trump’s re-election bump but closed last week at $315.35, now faces another bout of uncertainty.
Political analysts, meanwhile, are already gaming out the America Party’s path. Political analyst Nate Cohn argued that if inflation persists and growth stalls under Trump and Joe Biden, “dissatisfaction with the two-party system” could let Musk’s outfit gain real legitimacy by 2028.
Vox warned that the nearer-term threat is to Republicans: a futurist-technolibertarian bloc funded by Musk could swing “competitive House and Senate seats” in 2026—the very constituencies that decide control of Congress.
In July, Musk said the party will concentrate on “two or three Senate seats” and “eight to ten House districts” so it can be “the deciding vote on contentious laws.” The America Party would caucus separately from Democrats and Republicans, Musk added, and bargain issue-by-issue with both sides after the midterms.
In one exchange of the two businessmen’s online spat, Musk asserted that without him, “Trump would have lost the election.” This comes as a reply to Trump’s comment on Musk’s real effect to his presidential win, saying he “would have won Pennsylvania regardless of Elon”.
That strategy collides with Trump’s threat to cut federal subsidies to Musk’s companies—money that underwrites electric vehicles, rockets, and solar projects. Musk counters that the new party exists precisely to shrink government and would “spend money to unseat lawmakers” who supported the deficit-expanding bill.
With Trump’s approval still north of 40% and state ballot laws stacked against newcomers, the task is formidable. Yet the poll hints at a volatile electorate: independents lean Musk’s way, and even a 3–4-point bleed from the GOP in swing suburbs could hand the House to Democrats—or deny either major party a working majority.
For now, the America Party is a hashtag and a war chest. But history suggests deep pockets can move the electoral market if focused on the right nodes of leverage. Soon, Wall Street and Washington must now price in a third variable: a tech titan-led faction that promises, in Musk’s words, to “give you back your freedom” while holding the swing vote on Capitol Hill.
Information for this story was found via Reuters and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
One Response
Not a single one of these billionaires and blowhards knows the true meaning of “freedom” in a civil society. Libertarians would have a free for all and the current Trumpians blow hard the electorate into believing, wizard of oz style, that he will actually take care of them and they will all reap the benefits. Meanwhile. The rich get richer. End of the fairy tale.