The former head of Samsung‘s semiconductor division says Chinese memory manufacturers could reverse the AI-driven global memory shortage and collapse DDR5 prices within a year — and ChangXin Memory Technologies‘s surging profits suggest the challenge is no longer theoretical.
Kye-hyun Kyung, former President and CEO of Samsung’s Device Solutions (DS) Division, told a Korean engineering forum that CXMT and Jiahe Jinwei are expanding fast enough to swing the global memory market from shortage to surplus.
Citing market research data, Kyung projected combined DRAM production capacity could hit six million wafers per month by the second half of 2027 — though he warned the buildout could stall if major technology firms see diminishing returns on AI capital spending.
DDR5 chip prices surged from $6.84 per unit in September 2025 to $27.20 in December 2025, according to Sourceability, as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron reallocated advanced manufacturing capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI data centers, squeezing conventional DRAM supply.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 4.9% DRAM undersupply in 2026 — the worst imbalance in more than 15 years — and projects conventional DRAM prices will rise roughly 176% year-over-year, with server memory accounting for more than 50% of total demand in both 2026 and 2027.
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The three companies together hold more than 90% of the global DRAM market, with Samsung and SK Hynix alone controlling roughly 70%, according to TrendForce.
CXMT reported first-quarter 2026 net profit attributable to its parent of 24.76 billion yuan — a 1,688% year-on-year jump — after stockpiling inventory during the prior price downturn. It now commands a 7.67% share of the commodity DRAM market, placing it fourth worldwide, and undercuts Korean rivals by 15–20% on price. HP and Dell are running active qualification tests on CXMT components.
The chipmaker filed in December 2025 to raise 29.5 billion yuan ($4.22 billion) through a listing on Shanghai’s STAR Market, though the Shanghai Stock Exchange was still reviewing the filing as of May 2026. CXMT is targeting HBM production by the end of 2026.
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US export controls restricting access to advanced lithography equipment and ongoing intellectual property disputes remain headwinds. Chinese suppliers are absent from the high-end HBM segment that powers leading AI systems.
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