This morning Goldman Sachs released a new forecast for Q3 US GDP and showing a 34% annualized decline and reaching 15% unemployment. The new outlook shows a deeper recession than the previous report last week which predicted 9 percent unemployment and a 24 percent decline in Q2 GDP.
Goldman sees the virus causing an economic impact of around -13% in the month of April with the hospitality industry being his the hardest:
At the moment they see a strong recovery in the second half of the year; with some decline a result of the “second-round income effects”:
Goldman estimates slightly more than half the near-term output decline is made up by year-end with real GDP falling 6.2% in 2020 on an annual-average basis. In Q3, they see a “V-shape” recovery, with a a bigger bounce of 19 percent making up for lost production.
Information for this briefing was found via Goldman Sachs. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
