Hungary may soon be joining the UK on the sidelines outside of the EU, as probability of the country exiting the 27-nation bloc grows.
According to Hungarian National Bank former governor Andras Simor, Hungary’s potential exit from the European Union could become a likely scenario. Speaking on the country’s national ATV network which was later cited by Bloomberg, Simor suggested the probability of a Brexit-style departure is steadily increasing, citing Hungary’s escalating inflation and the EU’s suspension of $30 billion in aid to Budapest as significant factors.
“It’s probability,” he said. “If it was 10% last year, by now it has risen to 20%, to 30%.” Although he stressed that an exit is still unlikely, Simor’s analysis suggests a growing sentiment that such a move might become a necessity.
Simor’s fears center on the Hungarian government’s policies, which he believes might force the country into a corner where EU exit becomes a viable option. As he pointed out, despite Hungary being a net beneficiary of EU aid, a significant portion of it has remained inaccessible for years due to Brussels officials’ disagreements with Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s strict anti-immigration stances, perceived threats to judicial independence, and constraints on media freedoms.
Adding to the tension is Orban’s contentious relationship with the EU over Ukraine. Despite unlocking some EU aid by lifting a veto on financial assistance to Ukraine, Orban continues to criticize the EU’s stance on Kiev. His repeated calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine and his accusations of “pro-war Brussels bureaucrats” risking European interests for conflict with Russia have added to the strain.
In addition to geopolitical matters, Orban’s disagreements with the EU are rooted in cultural and societal issues. At a recent youth event in Romania, Orban argued that the EU is turning away from its Christian heritage, replacing its population through migration, and conducting an LGBTQ offensive against conservative societies.
Despite his criticisms, Orban has regularly denied any plans of Hungary leaving the EU. Public sentiment also aligns with his stance, with polls consistently showing support for staying in the bloc since the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, recent data indicates a decline in positive perception of the EU. A Eurobarometer survey documented a 12-point dip in those viewing the EU favourably, with only 39% of respondents now endorsing the union.
Information for this story was found via Bloomberg and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
