A Mainstreet Research poll released Monday shows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals holding a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, though the survey’s demographic composition has drawn scrutiny from polling observers.
The poll of 1,276 Canadian adults conducted from January 31 to February 2 found 51% of decided and leaning voters support the Carney-led Liberals, compared to 36% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, called the findings remarkable compared to polls from late 2025 that showed a statistical tie between the two parties.
The poll found 74% of Canadians watched all or part of Carney’s Davos speech, and 76% said they had a more favorable view of him afterward. The survey also showed 67% support a recent trade deal with China that reduces tariffs on canola oil and allows Chinese electric cars into the Canadian market, with 34% strongly supporting and 33% somewhat supporting the agreement.
“Young Canadians especially seem to have been impacted by the speech at a time when National pride is at an all time high,” Maggi said, referring to Carney’s address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Except the poll’s unweighted sample skewed heavily toward older Canadians, with only 55 respondents aged 18-34 compared to 820 aged 65 or older, according to crosstab data released by Mainstreet.
Mainstreet applied weighting to adjust these figures to match Canadian demographics, bringing the 18-34 age group to 231 in the weighted sample and reducing the 65-plus group to 413.
The stark difference between unweighted and weighted samples is a common challenge in public opinion research, where older Canadians typically respond to surveys at higher rates than younger adults. Pollsters use statistical weighting to correct for such demographic imbalances.
However, when unweighted samples are heavily skewed toward one demographic group, weighting may not fully address potential response bias. Small sample sizes for specific age groups can also result in higher margins of error within those subgroups.
Robert Martin, senior analyst for Mainstreet Research, emphasized the poll captured shifting dynamics driven by US-Canada tensions under President Donald Trump.
“Atlantic Canada where the highest per capita active and retired Canadian forces personnel hail from appears to have taken the Trump insults about our participation in NATO personally,” Martin said.
The poll found 66% of Canadians approve of how Carney handles Trump, with strong approval at 45% and somewhat approval at 22%.
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