After the market closed on August 7, Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) reported another disappointing quarter, which includes what has become an astonishing (and unfortunately consistent) degree of cash burn. More specifically, Lucid’s second quarter 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were US$151 million and a loss of US$710 million, much worse than analysts’ expectations of US$177 million and a US$596 million shortfall, respectively.
Lucid’s revenue continues to suffer from the vicious price war currently taking place in the electric vehicle industry. Revenue per vehicle delivered was about US$107,000 in 2Q 2023, up slightly from US$106,000 in 1Q 2023, but well below the US$133,000 realized in 4Q 2022.
Unfortunately, per-unit revenue stands to dip further: on August 7, Lucid cut the suggested retail price of its base model Air Pure by US$5,000 to US$82,400 from US$87,400, and that of its higher trim Air Touring and Grand Touring vehicles by US$12,000 each to US$95,000 and US$125,600, respectively.
Lucid burned US$904 million of cash in 2Q 2023 (defined as operating cash flow less capex). Over the twelve month ended June 30, 2023, aggregate cash destruction exceeded US$3.7 billion. Since Lucid expects to produce roughly the same number of vehicles in 2H 2023 as it did in 1H 2023, it is difficult to see why the company’s quarterly cash burn rate will deviate from a US$0.9 billion-US$1.0 billion pace over the next two quarters.
Lucid reduced its full-year 2023 capital expenditure guidance by US$300 million to US$1.1 billion-US$1.3 billion from US$1.4 billion-US$1.6 billion. While on the surface the projected lower outlay level could seem like a positive development, it may not be. It is unusual for a growth company to slash capex plans this significantly. Taken together with the model price cuts noted just above, this forecast could suggest waning demand for Lucid’s high priced cars.
(One argument in Lucid’s favor regarding demand is that the company reiterated its plans to produce “over 10,000” vehicles in 2023. When Lucid reported 1Q 2023 earnings in early May, it cuts its 2023 production forecast to more than 10,000 from 10,000-14,000.)
LUCID GROUP, INC.
| (in thousands of US $, except production/delivery unit statistics, revenue per vehicle delivered, and for shares outstanding) | 2023 Management Guidance | Twelve Months Ended 6-30-23 | June 30, 2023 | March 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 |
| Lucid Air Vehicles Delivered | 6,140 | 1,404 | 1,406 | 1,932 | |
| Lucid Air Vehicles Produced | > 10,000 | 10,262 | 2,173 | 2,314 | 3,493 |
| Revenue | $753,476 | $150,874 | $149,432 | $257,713 | |
| Revenue per Vehicle Delivered | $122,716 | $107,460 | $106,282 | $133,392 | |
| Operating Income | ($3,047,108) | ($837,685) | ($772,161) | ($749,739) | |
| Operating Cash Flow | ($2,719,603) | ($700,358) | ($801,264) | ($648,515) | |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1,100,000) to ($1,300,000) | ($1,025,437) | ($203,715) | ($241,770) | ($289,888) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ($2,530,753) | ($710,342) | ($643,898) | ($623,610) | |
| Cash – Period End | Sufficient liquidity at least into 2025 | $5,249,294 | $5,249,294 | $2,978,415 | $3,912,996 |
| Debt – Period End | $2,083,167 | $2,083,167 | $2,082,197 | $2,083,762 | |
| Shares Outstanding (millions) | 2,282 | 2,282 | 1,833 | 1,829 |
Despite its single-digit share price, Lucid remains a very expensive stock. Factoring in its 2.282 billion shares outstanding and US$3.15 billion of net cash on its balance sheet, Lucid’s enterprise value (EV) is about US$11.5 billion. The company’s revenue over the twelve months ended June 30, 2023 totaled just over US$750 million, meaning the stock trades at an EV-to-revenue multiple of more than 15x.
Phrased another way, Lucid’s adjusted EBITDA loss over the last twelve months is more than US$2.5 billion, and quarterly losses have been steepening: US$710 million in 2Q 2023; US$644 million in 1Q 2023; US$624 million in 4Q 2022; and US$553 million in 3Q 2022. Given this worrying trend, investors’ assigning a US$11.5 billion EV to Lucid is difficult to justify.
Lucid Group, Inc. last traded at US$6.64 on the NASDAQ.
Information for this story was found via Edgar and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
