Conservatives now have a 19-point lead over the Liberals, according to the latest Abacus Data poll. This margin ties for the largest national lead the pollster has ever measured for the Conservatives.
The poll, which surveyed 2,398 Canadian adults from February 1 to 7, 2024, found that if an election were to occur today, 43% of committed voters would choose the Conservatives, versus only 24% for the Liberals. It also found that the Liberal vote share is the smallest, at 19% versus 45% for Conservatives, among Canadians in the prime working age of 30 to 44.
What’s even worse for the Liberals is that voter enthusiasm for their party, while up 1% to 62%, is still 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives. Not surprisingly, the overall mood in Canada remains negative, with one in four Canadians believing the country is headed in the right direction and 17% — up 2% from the last survey — feeling optimistic about the direction of the country.
The concerns also remain largely the same: cost of living, housing affordability, healthcare, and the economy. Abacus Data notes a 2-point increase in crime and public safety, likely due to the recent focus on car theft.
Also not surprising is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s declining approval rating. It’s down to a net score of -33 versus last month’s -31. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s score, in contrast, is up a point at a net score of +2.
But this doesn’t mean that people are positive for the Poilievre fever.
“The Conservative lead — built from those who haven’t voted Conservative in the past two elections — is more about a rejection of the Liberals than an embrace of the Conservatives. That still remains a liability for the Conservatives,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
Information for this story was found via Abacus Data, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
