US and Mexican negotiators open formal scoping discussions on the North American trade pact this week, pressing ahead on a bilateral track that leaves Canada scrambling before a hard July 1 deadline.
The US Trade Representative’s office confirmed the first meeting between US and Mexican teams for the week of March 16, after USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard directed negotiators to begin “scoping discussions” on the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement — known in Canada as CUSMA.
Mexico’s Economy Ministry released a public consultation report on March 9, calling the pact essential to investment certainty and regional supply chains.
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Canada wrapped up its own consultations last year but has not formally opened negotiations with Washington. As the US and Mexico move this week, Ottawa risks being left at the door — a dynamic that played out in Trump’s first term, when former USTR Robert Lighthizer wrote that Washington and Mexico City struck a deal and were “prepared to move forward bilaterally” if Canada chose not to join.
Canada took a step toward the table on March 6, when Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met Greer in Washington for the first face-to-face since Trump froze talks last October — over an Ontario ad quoting Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. LeBlanc brought newly appointed chief trade negotiator Janice Charette and US Ambassador Mark Wiseman; his office called the session “constructive and substantive.” Both sides agreed to keep talking.
The relationship, however, has remained strained. Greer told Fox Business last month that Canada’s market access barriers make formal negotiations “a big challenge.” Carney, speaking from Australia days before the LeBlanc meeting, said CUSMA had “effectively been broken in the short term by US actions” and that the review must “re-establish the trust” businesses and investors need.
Trump has called the deal “irrelevant” and suggested it may have served its purpose, signaling the administration wants a lengthy renegotiation over a quick renewal.
The July 1 deadline forces all three parties to choose: renew CUSMA for 16 years, withdraw, or withhold confirmation — triggering annual reviews that could stretch for up to a decade.
For Canada, the stakes are concrete. CUSMA-compliant goods are currently exempt from Trump’s blanket 10% global tariff, shielding the bulk of Canadian exports. Sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber hit regardless, and a collapse of the pact would remove the floor entirely.
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