Oil Tariffs: Lose-Lose For Both Canada And US, Study Finds

A Goldman Sachs study projects a lose-lose situation for both Canadian oil producers and American consumers if the US pushes through with its proposed 10% tariff on oil imports from Canada.

The analysis estimates that Canadian oil producers stand to lose nearly US$7 billion annually in profit margins. Their predicament stems from the reality that most of Canada’s crude exports head south, leaving limited options for rerouting supply.

According to the study, producers in Canada would be “to a large extent, a ‘captured seller’ to US refiners,” forced to absorb three-quarters of the approximately $6-a-barrel tariff. This diminished revenue could have serious ramifications for companies that rely on the US market.

American households, meanwhile, face an even steeper aggregate hit, with the firm estimating US consumers would feel a $22 billion impact, roughly $170 per household each year, mostly through higher prices at the pump.

“A modest 10 per cent tariff on oil would mostly transfer revenues from (non) U.S. producers and U.S. consumers to the government and refiners-marketers,” the report states.

In parallel, the US government stands to collect about $20 billion in annual revenue through the proposed tariffs, the study notes. Yet the windfall may come at a much larger strategic cost. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, fears “it shakes the reliability of US partnerships in a way that could ultimately cost the United States in the long run.”

Beyond the surging prices, another concern stemming from oil tariffs is that this might trigger retaliation and erode confidence in cross-border energy dealings. Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, points out that market participants could look for ways to export Canadian crude via US ports or explore other mechanisms to lessen the blow.

The oil tariffs are expected to be imposed next month alongside the initial 25% sweeping tariffs on other Canadian exports.


Information for this briefing was found via Calgary Herald and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Video Articles

2026 Could Be Gold’s Biggest Year Yet!? | Ryan King – Equinox Gold

Gold Is Screaming Higher While Currencies Burn | Simon Ridgway – Rackla Metals

We Have the Highest-Grade Antimony Deposit in North America!? | Jim Atkinson -Antimony Resources

Recommended

Canadian Copper Secures $8 Million Lead Order From Ocean Partners As Part Of Larger Funding Round

Northern Superior Expands Philibert With 350 Metre Step Out Testing 1.10 g/t Gold Over 25.5 Metres

Related News

Tariffs Galore: Trump Threats 25% Levy On Auto, Pharma, Semiconductor

In our next episode on tariffs, President Donald Trump has declared his intention to impose...

Wednesday, February 19, 2025, 11:21:00 AM

Trump Hits Surplus Partner Brazil With 50% Tariffs For “Witch Hunt” On Bolsonaro

President Donald Trump has raised the stakes of his self-styled reciprocal trade war by mailing...

Thursday, July 10, 2025, 08:24:00 AM

Trump Considers Delay on Auto Parts Tariffs

President Donald Trump is considering a temporary delay on auto parts tariffs, a move that...

Thursday, April 17, 2025, 12:52:00 PM

Markets In Turmoil Fueled By Tariff-Induced Crashes

US markets appear locked in a downward spiral on Monday, marking a third consecutive trading...

Monday, April 7, 2025, 12:40:58 PM

Trump’s Tariffs A Comin’: Who’s Actually Losing?

President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico is scheduled to...

Tuesday, March 4, 2025, 09:20:00 AM