OPEC+ announced it will boost oil production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June, accelerating output increases despite slowing global demand and sending crude prices tumbling.
Oil prices fell more than $1 per barrel following the decision, with Brent crude futures dropping to $59.95 and US crude falling to $59.95 per barrel before rebounding. The move represents a significant shift in strategy for the oil cartel, which had maintained deep production cuts since 2022 to stabilize markets.
The group plans to increase combined output by nearly 1 million barrels per day from April through June, sources said. Saudi Arabia has signaled it will no longer prop up prices through unilateral cuts, while Kazakhstan indicated it would prioritize national interests over strict OPEC+ compliance.
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“We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a Reuters report.
The production hike comes as OPEC+ faces pressure from multiple fronts. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly warned fellow member Iraq about poor compliance with production targets. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said the country would prioritize national interests when setting output levels.
OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group expects to approve further accelerated hikes for August, September, and October if current market conditions hold. The eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary cuts had been reducing output by 2.2 million barrels per day since late 2022.
Barclays cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $66 a barrel and its 2026 forecast to $60, while ING lowered its projection for this year to $65 from $70, following the OPEC+ decision. Oil prices remain under pressure amid uncertainty over US-China trade relations and the pace of global economic growth.
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