Eight Capital has officially released an estimate suggesting that DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH) presently accounts for as much as 80% of Payfare’s (TSX: PAY) revenue.
The estimate was made following a Thursday evening announcement that DoorDash would not be renewing an agreement with Payfare related to the DasherDirect card program, which is set to expire in February 2025. DasherDirect, as per Payfare, is the company’s “largest program,” and “the revenue derived from the program has been a substantial proportion of Payfare’s total revenues.”
Just how substantial of a proportion of the revenues however is unclear, given that the company has failed to provide a sufficient risk disclosure for customer concentration. The most recent financial results simply indicate that “the company is largely economically dependent” on the service agreement with DoorDash, with a specific percentage of revenues not being provided.
The lack of sufficient disclosure led Eight Capital to estimate that “Doordash represents between 70-80% of revenue,” with analyst Adhir Kadve cutting 2025 revenue estimates from $293 million to somewhere between $48 and $72 million. Adjusted EBITDA meanwhile is now expected to be a loss of somewhere between $21 and $26 million, with a path existing to a potential EBITDA break even due to a capex light model.
The substantial contract loss meanwhile caused the firm to change its rating from Buy to Under Review, while entirely removing its price target, dropping it from $13 a share to “N/A”. Financial forecasts are said to be under review as well.
Investors appear to largely agree with the sentiment as well, with the equity falling from $8.35 a share on Thursday, to just $2.05 a share on Friday, a decline of over 75%.
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