Pierre Poilievre enters a mandatory leadership review Friday with overwhelming support from Conservative Party members but faces a stark electoral challenge: swing voters who could determine the next election view him far more negatively than his own party faithful.
Data from Abacus Data surveying 2,008 Canadians from January 12 to 16 reveals the Conservative leader’s predicament. Among potential Conservative voters — those who considered supporting the party but chose otherwise — 36% believe Poilievre’s leadership makes the party less electable, compared to 32% who believe it helps.
The pattern reverses sharply among committed Conservatives. Roughly two-thirds of the party base believe Poilievre enhances Conservative electability, and his net favorability among hardcore party supporters reaches a positive 82%.
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This disconnect extends to the broader Canadian electorate. Abacus found 61% of non-Conservative voters say Poilievre’s leadership hurts the party’s electoral prospects, while only 13% believe it helps.
The leadership vote occurs at the Telus Convention Centre as part of the party’s national convention running through January 31. Conservative Party rules triggered the review after Poilievre failed to defeat the Liberals in April 2025, despite months of polling leads beforehand.
Recent polling shows Poilievre’s favorability has deteriorated since the election. Liaison Strategies found his net favorability at negative 20 points in a survey of 1,000 Canadians conducted January 12 to 24. Women view him particularly unfavorably at 62%, compared to 51% of men.
Among Canadians over 65, 71% hold unfavorable views of the Conservative leader, according to Liaison. That figure drops to 59% among those aged 50 to 64, and 52% among voters between 35 and 49.
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Regional variations show Poilievre maintains positive support only in Alberta, where Liaison found net favorability of positive 17%. Quebec is his weakest region at negative 34%.
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Angus Reid Institute polling shows similar patterns, with approximately 58% viewing Poilievre unfavorably compared to 36% favorably. Prime Minister Mark Carney posts a 60% positive rating in the same polling.
Since April’s election, two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus, citing concerns about Poilievre’s leadership approach. The defections reduced Conservative caucus numbers and brought the minority Liberal government within one seat of a majority.
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Liaison principal David Valentin cautioned that leadership reviews can produce unexpected outcomes, noting past examples where party leaders expected to pass comfortably either failed or announced resignations shortly afterward.
Conservative delegates will vote by secret ballot on Friday. Despite broader public opinion challenges, party insiders expect Poilievre to receive strong support from the convention delegates, who were selected months ago and tend to represent the party’s committed base rather than swing voters.
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