One Seat Away: What Will It Take for Carney to Secure His Majority?

Two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government in recent weeks, bringing the party within one seat of a majority and intensifying scrutiny of Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre ahead of a January leadership review.

Michael Ma, who represents Markham-Unionville in Ontario, announced on December 11 that he would join the Liberal caucus. His defection followed Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont’s November 4 floor-crossing to the Liberals. The moves put the governing party at 171 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons.

Carney confirmed that he met with both MPs during the process. He said the former Conservatives were “attracted” to his government’s work but declined to characterize his involvement as “luring” or “courting” them.

“I met with them. I met with them just at the end of what was the process,” Carney said.

D’Entremont cited disagreements with Poilievre’s leadership style as a factor in his decision. Ma wrote in a statement that Carney offers “the steady, practical approach we need to deliver on the priorities I hear every day while door knocking in Markham-Unionville.”

Poilievre accused Carney of attempting to “manipulate” a parliamentary majority through “dirty backroom deals” rather than winning voter approval in an election.

“My message to Mark Carney is that you want a costly majority government to drive up taxes and deficits, then you have to go to the Canadian people and have them vote for it,” Poilievre told CBC News.

The Conservative leader faces a mandatory leadership review at the party’s January convention in Calgary. Recent polling by Angus Reid Institute shows 58% of Conservative voters want Poilievre to remain leader, down from 68% in August.

Poilievre led the Conservatives to 144 seats and 42% of the popular vote in the April 28 election but lost to Carney’s Liberals. He also lost his longtime Ottawa-area seat of Carleton and later won a byelection in Alberta.

Related: Conservative Support Rises in Latest Canadian Poll as Liberals Near Majority Through Floor-Crossings 

The Conservatives picked up 24 more seats than they held in the previous Parliament, but Poilievre’s once-commanding polling lead evaporated after US President Donald Trump launched a trade war with Canada and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned.

Liberal ministers have suggested other Conservative MPs are considering defections. Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon said Conservative members are “extremely frustrated” with their party’s leadership.

Conservative Party rules require a leadership review when a leader fails to form a government and does not resign. The party has not held such a review since 2004, when then-leader Stephen Harper won with 84% support after losing the previous year’s election.



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