Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has revealed his take on the current economic landscape and spoiler alert: the Fed will likely run into substantial trouble when it finally does raise interest rates.
In a discussion with Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum, Dalio warned that the surging housing market may be slated for bubble territory amid an economy that is bursting with high liquidity and historically-low interest rates. The billionaire investor pointed to a number of conditions that could lead to the development of a housing bubble, such as interest-only loans, where the principal does not need to paid in the short-term, and currently come affixed with record-low rates. “There’s a lot of money being thrown around that way. Those are the things that concern me more because you build up a bubble,” Dalio explained.
The Bridgewater Associates founder also took issue with the Fed, which continues to maintain interest rates near-zero and monthly asset purchases at $120 billion, despite inflation increases that consecutively exceed forecasts. According to Dalio, the federal government will run into problems when it tries to sell low-interest instruments in the event that the Fed tapers its purchases in that asset class. “You saw the reaction in the markets when the Fed just even hinted at tightening,” he said, pointing to the market’s backlash following the Fed’s latest policy update.
Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell kept the central bank’s current monetary policy intact, the FOMC’s internal forecasts suggest that an interest rate hike could be on the horizon as early as 2023, up from the previous consensus that called for a rate increase no earlier than 2024. Financial markets reacted adversely, with speculations that the Fed will be forced to cut back on its asset purchases a lot sooner than expected. “I don’t think they can tighten a lot without having a big negative effect,” explained Dalio.
Information for this briefing was found via Bloomberg. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.