The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has issued a sobering forecast that warns of potential social unrest in the coming years due to declining living standards across Canada.
In a highly-redacted internal report titled “Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada” (a copy can be accessed here), the national police force highlights how the anticipated economic recession could exacerbate resentment, particularly among younger generations already grappling with diminished prospects compared to previous generations.
The report, based on open-source data from mid-2022, examines risks the Canadian government and RCMP may face over the next five years. While an outright recession has not yet materialized, with GDP fluctuating between modest growth and slight contractions, the report notes many troubling economic indicators pointing to eroding living standards.
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Canada’s GDP per capita has stagnated for a decade, now standing at just US$53,250 compared to $83,060 in the United States — a stark contrast from the virtual parity between the neighbors only ten years ago.
The report also bluntly states that “many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live” due to soaring housing costs.
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The widening gulf between rich and poor is singled out as a factor that could further inflame resentment over declining fortunes. Access to affordable housing has emerged as a political flashpoint, with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre characterizing younger adults as being trapped living with parents or facing potential homelessness.
While not overtly political, the RCMP report delves into issues of polarization, eroding trust in institutions, and the potential for economic woes to fuel extremist movements. It discusses the rise of “paranoid populism” capitalizing on conspiracy theories, as well as opposition to public health measures like those imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The effects of climate change are also identified as a destabilizing force, with the report warning about increasing extreme weather events that could damage critical infrastructure and other far-reaching consequences.
Ultimately, the report serves as a grim forecast aimed at preparing law enforcement for potential breakdowns in order and unrest fueled by severe economic pressures already weighing on living standards across Canadian society. The RCMP warns this reality — with younger generations confronting dwindling prospects compared to their parents and grandparent — could seed widespread resentment and social upheaval in the years ahead.
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