Canada’s natural gas production is set to climb 48% by 2050, reaching 27 billion cubic feet per day, fueled by the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas exports, according to a new report from the Canada Energy Regulator.
The baseline scenario in CER’s latest energy futures report marks a sharp departure from earlier forecasts, which projected flat production through 2040 followed by a decline. Instead, the updated outlook highlights LNG as a key driver, with exports expected to account for 20-25% of total output by mid-century. This shift reflects a broader recognition of global energy security concerns and the mismatch between supply and demand that has defined recent years.
A historic milestone came on June 28, 2025, when the LNG tanker GasLog Glasgow docked at LNG Canada’s terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia, to load the country’s first-ever export cargo of super-cooled gas bound for Asia. This event signaled Canada’s long-awaited entry into the global LNG market, a development poised to reshape the nation’s energy landscape.
Analysts view CER’s projections as a more grounded assessment of Canada’s energy trajectory. The report also anticipates short-term growth in oil production—Canada remains the world’s fourth-largest producer—though longer-term gains hinge on global price dynamics.
Electricity generation is another bright spot, with all scenarios forecasting strong increases, particularly from low-emitting sources, as the country navigates the complexities of decarbonization and affordability. Ian Archer, associate director at S&P Global Energy, noted the challenge of displacing established fuels during this transition.
CER’s prior outlook, issued just a few years ago, pegged 2050 gas production at a far lower 21 billion cubic feet per day. The revised figure of 27 billion underscores how swiftly market realities and policy perspectives have evolved, positioning Canada as a significant player in meeting global LNG demand through 2050.
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