More than 20,000 people crossed from Russia into Georgia in a single day on August 18, Russia’s own Federal Customs Service reported, noting it had observed the same pattern for several days in a row — more than 19,000 crossed on both August 15 and 16.
“Current figures significantly exceed those for comparable periods in previous years,” the agency said. Eyewitnesses described a traffic jam so severe that drivers advanced only about 100 meters over two hours.
Verkhny Lars is the only land crossing between Russia and Georgia, and it saw record traffic once before — in September 2022, right after Putin’s mobilization order, when Russians leaving the country backed up the checkpoint for days at a time.
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Flashback: Around 1 Million Reportedly Left Russia After Mobilization
Russia holds State Duma elections September 18 through 20, and Ukrainian intelligence, Western analysts, and even sources close to the Kremlin’s own domestic policy apparatus expect Moscow to hold off on any mobilization announcement until after the vote.
Read: Is Russia Preparing to Attack NATO?
A source close to the presidential administration told the Moscow Times that “something could happen” in October. Ukrainian military intelligence has separately assessed that a call-up could begin in the first days of October, potentially bringing in 300,000 to 500,000 recruits.
Russian officials have publicly denied any mobilization is planned. But the timing tracks with groundwork the Kremlin has been laying for months — expanded enlistment eligibility, new emergency powers for the national guard, and a string of decrees streamlining conscription — all pointing toward a system built to mobilize quietly rather than repeat the chaotic, unpopular rollout of 2022.
Read: Russia Quietly Sets the Stage for a New Mobilization Wave
