The Liberal Party’s advantage over the Conservatives has shrunk to just two percentage points, according to a new Abacus Data poll released ahead of pivotal leadership debates.

The survey, conducted April 14-15 with 1,200 Canadian adults, shows Liberals at 40% among decided voters compared to 38% for the Conservatives. This represents a significant tightening from the six-point lead Liberals held two weeks ago.

Among voters most certain to cast ballots, Conservatives now hold a slight numerical edge (40% vs. 39%), suggesting potentially stronger turnout among Conservative supporters.

“This smaller sample serves as a benchmark before these highly anticipated debates,” said David Coletto, who authored the poll. Abacus plans additional polling over the weekend to measure potential shifts following the French-language debate tonight and English debate tomorrow.

The regional breakdown reveals areas of both Liberal strength and vulnerability. In Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, Liberals maintain a seven-point advantage (47% vs. 40%), though this gap has narrowed from earlier polling. Quebec shows Liberals and the Bloc Québécois tied at 36%, with Conservatives at 19%.

The survey indicates a shifting electoral landscape as voters increasingly prioritize cost of living concerns. Among the 46% who list reducing living costs as their top issue, Conservatives lead by 11 points. Meanwhile, Liberals maintain a 34-point advantage among the 33% most concerned about Donald Trump’s impact on Canada.

Despite the tightening race, 48% of Canadians still expect the Liberals to win the election, compared to 32% predicting a Conservative victory.

According to Abacus, public desire for change has rebounded, with 56% of respondents saying “it’s definitely time for a change in government,” up from 51% a week earlier. This coincides with decreased support for Liberal re-election, which dropped to 21% from 24%.

The margin of error for the probability-based random sample is approximately ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20.

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