Teladoc: Mixed Results From Analysts Following Q4 Results

On February 24th, Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) reported their full-year and fourth quarter results. Fourth quarter and full year revenue came in at $383.3 million and $1.09 billion, representing a 145% and 98% increase year over year, respectively. They also issued first quarter and full-year guidance for 2021.

Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $445 to $455 million and $1.95 to $2 billion for the first quarter and full year, respectively. The first quarter guidance is slightly lower than the Refinitiv IBES estimate of $446 million, while the full-year is slightly higher than their $1.95 billion estimates.

Teladoc currently has 29 analysts covering the company with a weighted 12-month price target of $261.25. This is down from the average before the results, which was $247.22. Eight analysts have strong buy ratings, ten analysts have buy ratings, while another ten analysts have hold ratings. Only one analyst has a sell rating.

Below you can see the most recent price target changes:

  • Evercore ISI raises price target to $255 from $215
  • D.A. Davidson raises target price to $275 from $260
  • Oppenheimer raises target price to $270 from $250
  • Jefferies cuts target price to $248 from $264
  • BofA Global Research raises price objective to $255 from $245
  • Piper Sandler cuts price target to $291 from $305
  • Deutsche Bank raises target price to $263 from $244
  • Trust Securities raises target price to $275 from $252
  • Stifel cuts target price to $234 from $270
  • SVB Leerink raises target price to $266 from $256
  • Oppenheimer raises target price to $270 from $250

Canaccord reiterated both their buy rating and their $330 price target. Their analyst, Richard Close, is effectively suggesting people “buy the dip.” However, the dip at the time was ~6% in after-hours trading, while the company closed down 14% the following trading day. He attributed the large down day on membership guidance of 52-54 million in 2021. He writes, “While this metric has normalized, we believe mgmt. is being conservative based on their pipeline commentary (and track record).”

Close’s bullish takeaway on the earnings is that the new membership pipeline is 50% higher than one year ago, utilization rates are up 8.25% year over year, new registrations are growing 2x the rate of membership, non-infectious volumes are 75% of total visits vs. the 50% of last year, and their behavioral health visits grew 500% in 2020.

Close also gives his bearish takeaway, consisting of two parts: membership guidance only factoring in 4-8% growth year over year and annual growth only being up 40% in 2020 while being up 61% in 2019.

Onto the results, revenue of $383 million and EBITDA of $50.4 million beat guidance of $382 and $37 million, respectively. He adds that first quarter and full year 2021 guidance is better than their estimates. Their first quarter revenue estimate was $441 million, while EBITDA was estimated at $43 million, while full year revenue is slated to be between $1.95 to $2 billion. In comparison, Canaccord’s full-year estimates are $1.92 billion in revenue and EBITDA of $231 million.

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Leave a Reply