New home sales in the Greater Toronto Area plunged to their lowest level since 1981 in January, extending a record-breaking downturn that industry groups say has now surpassed the 1990s real estate collapse in duration.
Developers sold just 269 new homes across the GTA last month — down 36% from January 2025 and 80% below the 10-year average of 1,339 units — according to data released February 24 by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). The figures, compiled by Altus Group, BILD’s official market intelligence source, mark the worst January for new home sales since the organization began tracking the GTA market more than four decades ago.
“GTA new home sales started 2026 the same way they ended 2025 with another record low for the month,” said Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group. “The sustained nature of the new home slowdown has been underpinned by the combination of affordability concerns and failing consumer confidence.”
The collapse spans all housing types. Developers sold 184 single-family homes last month, down 26% year-over-year and 68% below the 10-year average. New condo apartment sales dropped 50% to just 85 units, falling 89% below the 10-year average. Combined new home inventory stood at 20,557 units at end of January — representing 26 months of supply based on the trailing 12-month sales average, the highest level BILD has recorded to date.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 3,082 total resale transactions in January 2026, a 19.3% year-over-year decline, with the average selling price down 6.5% to $973,289 — the first time the GTA average has fallen below $1 million since January 2021. Overall GTA home transactions in 2025 totaled 62,433, the lowest annual figure since 2000, with the average selling price declining 4.7% to $1,067,968.
“The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld. “Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years.”
TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer identified US trade relations as a central barrier to recovery, saying reaffirmed trade relationships and large-scale domestic economic development projects will be key for improved home sales moving forward. The trade review between Canada, the US, and Mexico is set for July.
Supply remains historically elevated. Single-family inventory climbed to 5,826 units, up 27% year-over-year. Benchmark prices for new single-family homes fell to $1,397,358 in January — down 10% over the prior 12 months and roughly 26% below the 2022 peak. New condo apartment benchmark prices held near a floor at $1,027,486.
BILD said a meaningful recovery requires both greater market certainty and a sustained rebuild in consumer confidence, noting that Canada’s population continues to grow even as buyer activity stalls.
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