A cryptocurrency betting platform has revealed that a single trader based in France has placed more than $45 million in bets favoring Donald Trump to win the November presidential election, highlighting concerns about the reliability of prediction markets as election indicators.
Polymarket, a crypto-based betting website, launched an investigation after discovering that just four accounts were making disproportionate wagers on Trump’s victory. The company confirmed that these accounts were controlled by one individual, despite initial concerns that an American might be circumventing US trading restrictions. A spokesperson described the user as a person with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background.”
“Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” the spokesperson for Polymarket said. “Further, our investigation to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market. This user has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”
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Previously: Polymarket Betting Shift Favors Trump, Sparks Speculation About High-Profile Backer
Speculations on the identity of the trader, who goes by the handle “Fredi9999,” swirled earlier in the month, when he had about $4 million in bets favoring Trump. Some suggested it could be a consortium of investors or a single wealthy individual. While some pointed to a possible connection to Elon Musk, dork MAGA himself, noting coincidences in timing between the account’s activities and Musk’s public statements about Trump.
This finding challenges the perceived wisdom of betting markets as reliable predictors of election outcomes. Critics warn that such market manipulation could influence undecided voters by creating a false impression of widespread support for a particular candidate.
This development comes as the presidential race remains close, with RealClearPolitics’ national polling average showing Harris at 48.7% and Trump at 48.5%. The tight margins have led some observers to look to alternative indicators, including betting markets, for insights into the election’s outcome.
Polymarket, which operates outside the United States due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, uses stablecoins for betting transactions. While these digital currencies offer some anonymity, blockchain analysis can often trace fund origins and identify wallet holders.
Trading volume for presidential election bets has reached $2.4 billion on Polymarket’s platform. As of Thursday, the site showed Trump with a 61.6% chance of victory, while competitors Kalshi and PredictIt placed his odds at 59% and 57% respectively.
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