Troops and armor from both Ethiopia and Eritrea are massing near the Tigray region, pushing the Horn of Africa toward a conflict that could rival the war that killed an estimated 600,000 people just three years ago.
Regional diplomats confirmed the buildup on both sides of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border to Bloomberg. A Western diplomatic source told CGTN that the Ethiopian federal army is “encircling Tigray,” adding: “Such large numbers of troops positioning themselves face to face is not a good sign.”
The buildup follows clashes that erupted in late January in Tsemlet, western Tigray — a district still contested by Amhara regional forces — prompting Ethiopian authorities to suspend all flights into the region. The fighting marked one of the first direct confrontations since the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that formally ended the Tigray War.
The diplomatic rupture between Addis Ababa and Asmara deepened sharply in early February, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed publicly acknowledged for the first time that Eritrean forces carried out civilian killings, property destruction, and industrial looting during the 2020–2022 conflict. Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the allegations as “cheap and despicable lies.”
The two governments now trade accusations across a widening fault line. Ethiopia charges Eritrea with arming Tigrayan rebel groups; Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of plotting to seize its Red Sea ports. Ethiopia became landlocked in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence, and Abiy has argued the country cannot remain so indefinitely — a position Eritrea views as a direct territorial threat.
The International Crisis Group, in a February 18 briefing, warned that “a slide toward hostilities would be easy to start but much more difficult to stop,” calling the situation a powder keg with implications far beyond Ethiopia’s borders.
External actors are accelerating the drift toward war. The Europe External Programme with Africa reports that rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is increasingly shaping the conflict, with each Gulf power backing opposing factions across the Horn. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Ethiopia this week and reportedly warned Abiy directly against starting a new war.
The consequences for civilians would be severe. Humanitarian organizations warn that the majority of Tigray’s roughly 6 million residents already depend on emergency aid — a crisis compounded by the near-total collapse of US foreign assistance that once made Ethiopia Washington’s largest aid recipient on the continent.
The previous Tigray War, which ran from November 2020 to November 2022, killed an estimated 600,000 people according to African Union figures and displaced millions more. Analysts warn that a new conflict, now drawing in Eritrea as a potential adversary rather than an ally of Addis Ababa, carries the risk of an even wider regional conflagration.
Information for this story was found via Bloomberg, CGTN, Al Jazeera, JURIST, International Crisis Group, Europe External Programme with Africa, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
