The United States has just two months of rare earth supplies left for military use, a critical vulnerability as it sustains strikes on Iran, with China positioned to wield significant influence over the duration and cost of the conflict.
These elements, vital for missile guidance systems, fighter jets, and radar technologies, are predominantly sourced from China, which controls over half of global mine supply and nearly all processing capacity. Washington’s dependence on Beijing has emerged as a strategic concern amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where US military operations began on February 28. Analysts warn that any restriction on exports or supply chain disruptions by China could directly impact how long the US can maintain its campaign.
This supply crunch looms large as President Donald Trump prepares for a pivotal visit to China later in March, his first since 2017. Sources indicate that rare earth inventories will dominate discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with Beijing appearing less urgent to strike a deal. Trump, who last week vowed “ferocious, unyielding resolve” against Iran, projecting a four-to-five-week campaign, shifted tone on Monday, suggesting the crisis could end “very soon” as military objectives near completion.
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China’s grip on the market is tightening. Under its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, Beijing aims to further consolidate its rare earth industry and enhance export control systems, potentially deepening its sway over global supply chains for defense and clean energy technologies. Last year’s export controls already left Western manufacturers scrambling, underscoring the difficulty of diversifying away from Chinese dominance in the near term.
The Trump administration has responded with a $12 billion initiative to stockpile critical minerals and rally allies into a trade bloc. Yet, new projects outside China are unlikely to come online fast enough to avert shortages, which could shift pricing power to a handful of producers. For now, the US remains exposed, with the US Geological Survey confirming China as the largest supplier of many critical minerals.
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