eToro revealed in a recent article that their proprietary breakfast commodity price index has experienced a substantial 54% increase over the past year, significantly outpacing the broader commodity markets. The surge has been attributed to weather-driven supply disruptions affecting key ingredients such as cocoa, orange juice, and coffee.
They suggest that these price hikes will soon be reflected in higher consumer supermarket prices, potentially putting a floor under the recent inflation slowdown. While agricultural producers and their suppliers, like Deere and Mosaic, may benefit from this trend, food producers such as Kraft and Nestle could face challenges in terms of volume and profit margins.
eToro’s equal-weight index, which tracks nine popular breakfast ingredients, has seen substantial gains, particularly in cocoa (+150%), pork (35%), coffee (30%), and orange juice (20%). These increases have been driven by supply-side and weather-related shocks across various regions, including West Africa, Florida, and Brazil.
Despite a slowdown in food inflation in the US and UK, the article indicates that supermarket prices for the most impacted commodities are beginning to rise, with notable increases in hot chocolate, granulated sugar, fruit juice, and coffee prices.
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