The Liberal government already have the bare number they need for a majority in the House of Commons but the next by-elections still matter because one newly opened Conservative seat in Quebec could turn a fragile 172-seat majority into a slightly safer governing margin, while forcing Conservatives to defend terrain they barely held in 2025.
The immediate target is Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, a Quebec riding vacated after Conservative MP Richard Martel resigned on Tuesday, according to the House of Commons membership record. Martel’s departure followed his appointment to the Senate.
Martel did not leave behind a blue fortress. He won Chicoutimi—Le Fjord in the April 28, 2025 general election with 17,356 votes, or 34.1%. The Bloc Québécois finished almost level at 15,857 votes, or 31.2%, while the Liberals took 15,820 votes, or 31.1%. The gap between first and third was only 1,536 votes.
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A Liberal win in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord would turn a Conservative resignation into a Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal gain, deepen the opposition’s seat deficit, and give the government more breathing room when MPs are absent, committees bog down, or the Senate returns legislation with amendments.
The current House count: Liberals hold 172 seats, exactly the number needed for a majority in a 343-seat chamber. The Conservatives have 139, the Bloc has 21, the NDP has 5, the Greens have 1, there is 1 Independent, and 4 seats are vacant.
The by-elections
Not all vacancies carry the same strategic weight. North Vancouver—Capilano is a Liberal-held vacancy after Jonathan Wilkinson resigned on June 19. Elections Canada said the seat became vacant on June 22 and that the by-election date must be announced between July 3 and December 19, with the earliest possible voting day on August 10.
The riding starts as a Liberal defence, not a pickup. Wilkinson won the 2025 race with 15,437 votes against 10,697 for the Conservative candidate, based on Elections Canada’s official poll-by-poll results. That gives the Liberals a clear advantage, though the seat’s history gives Conservatives enough reason to contest it seriously.
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Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton is a BQ-held vacancy after Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay resigned on June 19. The Bloc won the 2025 contest with 25,447 votes, or 43.9%, while the Liberals finished second with 19,504 votes, or 33.6%. The Liberal path there exists, but it requires a much larger swing than in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.
Beaches—East York is the least mysterious on paper. Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith resigned on July 7 after previously confirming plans to leave federal politics. He had won the 2025 election with 39,804 votes, or 67.7%, while the Conservatives placed second with 13,830 votes, or 23.5%.
The Quebec test
The sharper question is whether Chicoutimi—Le Fjord becomes a three-way squeeze or a clean government-versus-opposition race.
In 2025, the riding was split almost evenly among Conservatives, Liberals, and the Bloc. That means candidate selection, turnout, and the national mood could matter more than party history. A small shift from the Bloc to the Liberals, or from Conservatives to either federalist rival, could decide the seat.
The Writ’s July 7 projection put the Liberals at 44.6% national support, the Conservatives at 34.9%, the NDP at 10.3%, and the Bloc leading in 22 Quebec seats, with an average of 19.5 seats. The same analysis flagged Chicoutimi—Le Fjord as a three-cornered fight and noted that the Bloc could also be occupied defending Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton if the contests overlap.
The projection, treated as analyst view, captures the political risk facing the Conservatives. Martel’s Senate appointment removes an incumbent who had personal strength in the region and leaves Pierre Poilievre’s party defending a seat where its 2025 vote share was only 34.1%.
Carney’s path to a majority was already shaped by by-elections and defections. Liberal wins in the April 13 by-elections in University—Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne helped secure majority status after earlier opposition defections had pushed the government close to the threshold.
The next round is different. The government is no longer chasing survival. It is trying to convert vacancies into insulation.
A Liberal hold in North Vancouver—Capilano and Beaches—East York would preserve the current majority and a Liberal gain in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord would widen it. A surprise in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton would be even more damaging for the Bloc, though the 2025 margin there makes it a steeper climb.
The by-election calendar has not been finalized but the map is already telling the story.
