Canada Strikes $12.1 Billion in Critical Minerals Deals, but Experts Question Whether It’s Enough

The Canadian government signed 30 new critical minerals deals with 12 allied nations Monday, committing $12.1 billion to projects ranging from rare earth recycling to lithium processing — a major bet that Ottawa can convert the country’s vast mineral wealth into a functioning industrial supply chain before geopolitical pressures make the window narrower.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson delivered the announcement at the 2026 PDAC Convention in Toronto, one of the mining industry’s largest annual gatherings. Monday’s deals bring the running total under the Critical Minerals Production Alliance — a body Carney stood up during Canada’s 2025 G7 Presidency — to $18.5 billion since October.

The urgency behind the push is hard to miss. Hodgson told delegates that mineral supply chains “are being weaponized” — a reference to China’s grip on global processing capacity and to shifting US trade policy — and argued that critical minerals “are now central to global geopolitics, economics, national defence and the race to net-zero.”

Individual deals span several countries and commodity types. Canada directed $16.7 million to First Phosphate’s phosphorus demonstration project in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec, and $9.1 million to Cyclic Materials Inc.’s rare earth recycling centre in Kingston, Ontario. Greenland Resources received up to $7 million for its Malmbjerg molybdenum project. Rock Tech Lithium’s Ontario converter project secured a technology partnership with Siemens Canada.

The day also produced diplomatic agreements on two fronts: a memorandum of understanding with India on critical minerals collaboration, signed during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to New Delhi, and a joint declaration with the European Union on supply chain cooperation.

Industry observers, however, pushed back on the government’s narrative. Marilyn Spink, executive director of the Canadian Critical Minerals and Materials Alliance, said the fundamental problem is not a shortage of deals but a shortage of processing infrastructure. “The strategic bottleneck is not geology — it is refining, chemical upgrading, purification, alloying and advanced materials engineering capacity,” she said.

A concurrent RBC report took aim at Ottawa’s $2 billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, calling it undersized relative to the capital required. The bank flagged Ontario’s Ring of Fire alone as needing $2.4 billion in road and transmission infrastructure before any mining can begin at scale.

Canada holds 34 officially designated critical minerals and produces more than 60 in total — a resource base that has drawn growing interest from allies seeking alternatives to Chinese supply. Whether Ottawa can translate that geology into refining and manufacturing capacity remains the central question.



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