Forward bookings for air travel between Canada and the United States have plummeted by more than 70% compared to the same period last year, according to new data from OAG Aviation, highlighting the severe economic impact of escalating trade disputes between the two countries.
The dramatic decline comes as President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, jacked up auto tariffs, and introduced stricter border crossing requirements for Canadians, creating what could be described as a perfect storm for cross-border travel.
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“Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we’ve compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season,” said John Grant, OAG Chief Analyst. “The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September.”
The data reveals particularly steep drops in summer travel months, with July and August bookings down 71.4% and 71.9%, respectively. March 2025 bookings show the steepest decline at 79.7% compared to March 2024.
This collapse in travel bookings coincides with the Trump administration’s announcement of a new rule requiring Canadians who stay in the United States longer than 30 days to register their information and submit fingerprints, according to draft regulations set to take effect April 11.
The travel downturn also comes amid growing political tensions. A recent Angus Reid Institute survey of 2,005 Canadian adults found only 24% of Canadians now hold a favorable view of the US, down dramatically from 40% in November 2024 and far below historical levels that reached as high as 72% in previous tracking.
Airlines have responded to the weakening demand by redirecting capacity. While scheduled airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through October 2025, carriers like WestJet have added 114 flights to Europe, with Dublin and Edinburgh benefiting the most from these capacity shifts.
“For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice,” noted Grant.
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