Canadian Cannabis: Canaccord Lifts Cronos Target, Reiterates Canopy Growth And Tilray Ratings

Yesterday Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets put out a second-quarter preview note on the top Canadian cannabis companies, being Cronos Group (TSX: CRON), Tilray Brands (TSX: TLRY) and Canopy Growth (TSX: WEED). In the note, Canaccord raised their rating on Cronos from a hold to a buy rating while also raising their price target from C$4.50 to C$5.00. In contrast, they kept their rating and price target the same for Tilray and Canopy. They have a buy rating on Tilray with a US$7.00 12-month price target, while they have a sell rating on Canopy Growth with a C$3.50 12-month price target.

In the note, they write, “three of the largest Canadian Licensed Producers will issue quarterly financial results in a sector that continues to face a tough macro environment (namely in the highly saturated Canadian market). Although CQ2/22 saw retail sales in Canada increase by ~4%, we are largely expecting flat to modestly higher sequential prints.”

For Canopy, Canaccord believes that Canadian adult-use sales will stay the same quarter over quarter while its DTC segment will see a low single-digit increase in sales and relatively flat medical sales. They expect net Canadian cannabis revenues of C$51.7 million. However, they expect Canopy’s international sales to drop by 18% to C$11.4 million but believe that the company’s CPG segments “after experiencing double-digit declines” will see a rebound this quarter to C$50.8 million.

Lastly, they expect Canopy to report another quarter of negative gross margins, coming in at -$7.2 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $89.1 million.

Onto Cronos, they expect the company to “make incremental progress in both its top-line and margin profile compared to the prior quarter.” They expect Cronos’ branded sales to be up 7% sequentially, but note that due to the timing of sales and re-orders from provincial buyers may lag into the third quarter. They expect Cronos to report total net sales of US$26.9 for the quarter.

They expect gross margins to be flat sequentially, coming in at US$7.3 millions. For adjusted EBITDA, they expect the company to report another loss of US$17.2 million.

Lastly, Canaccord expected Tilray to post revenues of US$152.6 million for the most recent quarter. The firm, whom reported this morning, instead posted revenues of $153.3 million, although the cannabis segment saw a decline in sales, with the segment accounting for just 35% of the firms revenue for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA meanwhile was forecasted to come in at $10.4 million, with the company ultimately posting $11.5 million.

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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