The Chilean state-owned miner Codelco has effectively ruled out reaching its former target of 1.7 million tonnes of annual copper production within the next four or five years. Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said Codelco’s repeated forecasting failures left “no possibility” of achieving the target over that period, according to comments made to Radio Infinita.
Codelco’s official 2026 guidance calls for own production of between 1.331 million and 1.357 million tonnes. Reaching 1.7 million tonnes from that range would require an increase of approximately 25% to 28%.
The admission arrives as the International Energy Agency expects announced mining projects to supply only about 75% of the copper required from primary sources in 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario. Although the projected deficit narrowed from roughly 30% in the IEA’s previous outlook, the remaining 25% gap assumes projects currently in the pipeline are completed and operate as expected.
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Codelco produced 1.732 million tonnes from its own mines in 2015. Its total production reached 1.891 million tonnes after including attributable output from El Abra and Anglo American Sur. Using the comparable own-production measure, the company’s 2026 guidance is approximately 375,000 to 401,000 tonnes below its 2015 result, a decline of between 21.6% and 23.1%.
The miner reported own production of 1.334 million tonnes in 2025, up just 0.5% from 2024. Total attributable production reached 1.440 million tonnes. The limited increase came despite record capital expenditures of $5.07 billion.
Costs also moved higher. C1 direct costs rose 4.8% in 2025 to 208.6 cents per pound, while net cathode costs increased 13.6% to 372.9 cents per pound.
The operational pressure continued into 2026. Q1 production fell 8.1% year over year to 272,000 tonnes. C1 costs increased 10% to 231.8 cents per pound as lower production, maintenance expenses, currency movements, and operating constraints raised unit costs.
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Higher copper prices prevented the decline from translating directly into weaker financial results. Q1 EBITDA rose 59% to $2.14 billion, while consolidated profit increased to $290 million from $60 million. The earnings improvement was driven primarily by copper and byproduct prices rather than additional output.
On top of that, Codelco’s production numbers have also faced internal scrutiny. A company audit concluded that 26,875 tonnes recorded during 2025 should have remained classified as work in progress because the materials required additional processing. The amount represented approximately 2% of reported own production.
READ: Codelco’s 2025 Copper Miscount May Point To Historic Output Low
Codelco dismissed one executive, disciplined other employees, ordered the recovery of related incentive payments, and said it would refer the matter to prosecutors. The company said the findings did not require changes to its audited financial statements.
Copper demand is meanwhile expanding beyond traditional construction, manufacturing, and electricity networks. A Copper Development Association study estimates that data centres contain approximately 20 to 40 tonnes of copper for every megawatt of applied power, depending on facility design, rack density, power distribution, and supporting infrastructure.
For scale, the 375,000 to 401,000-tonne difference between Codelco’s 2015 own production and its 2026 guidance is equivalent to the estimated copper content of roughly 9.4 gigawatts to 20 gigawatts of data-centre capacity.
The IEA expects copper to record the largest absolute demand increase among the critical minerals it tracks, adding approximately 7 million tonnes through 2040 as electricity grids, digital infrastructure, and other technologies expand.
Codelco’s new board is responding by prioritizing productivity, cost controls, investment returns, and cash generation rather than defending production volume at any price. The company said future asset decisions and partnerships will be evaluated according to profitability and their ability to strengthen its finances.
That strategy may improve Codelco’s balance sheet, but it removes confidence that higher prices alone will quickly restore lost production.
