Conservative Lead Holds as Trump Concerns Shape Canadian Politics
Canada’s Conservative Party maintains a strong lead at 46% of committed voters, while Liberals have gained 7 points to reach 27% and the New Democratic Party (NDP) sits at 15%, according to a new Abacus Data poll released Thursday.
A verification survey conducted February 11-12 with a new sample confirmed these findings, showing Conservatives at 45%, Liberals at 25%, and NDP at 17%, all within the margin of error of the main survey of 3,000 Canadian adults.
Donald Trump has emerged as Canada’s second most important issue, with 42% of voters citing it as a top concern, behind only cost of living at 62%. Almost seven in ten Canadians view Trump negatively, with disapproval increasing 11 points since early December following his comments about tariffs and suggestions about Canada becoming the 51st state. Among Conservative supporters, 31% view Trump positively, while 48% hold negative views.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces increasing challenges, with negative impressions reaching 42% against 39% positive views. The party’s potential voter pool has also shrunk by 5 points since mid-January to 50%, while the Liberals’ accessible voter base has grown by 10 points.
Support for the Liberal Party shows signs of strengthening, with 19% now saying the party deserves another mandate, up 8 points since mid-January. However, 50% of voters still desire governmental change and believe a viable alternative exists.
In testing potential Liberal leadership scenarios, the poll found Conservatives would maintain 45% support regardless of the Liberal leader. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney would attract 28% for the Liberals compared to 21% under current Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. The NDP would fare better under Freeland at 20% versus 12% under Carney.
Regional data shows Conservative support declining in Atlantic Canada while holding steady in British Columbia and Ontario. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads at 34%, followed by Conservatives at 29% and Liberals at 28%. The combined Liberal vote share in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada has risen to 30% from 22% in mid-January.
The NDP, under leader Jagmeet Singh, faces particular challenges with support dropping to its lowest level in recent tracking. Singh’s personal ratings show 29% holding positive impressions versus 40% negative.
“The opinion environment in Canada is shifting,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “Trump’s threatening posture towards Canada has become a defining issue, particularly among older and educated voters. While the Conservatives maintain their lead, Baby Boomers and those with higher education levels appear most susceptible to changing their political preferences.”
The survey was conducted from February 5-11, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
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