Just two weeks after the de-SPACing of TPCO Holdings Corp (NEO: GRAM.u) (OTC: GRAMF), which has been the largest cannabis SPAC to date with deep roots in the California market, Haywood Capital has put out a formal note on TPCO Holdings. There is a clear distinction. This isn’t an initiation with a formal price target and rating, but is what Haywood calls a “special situations report.”
Neal Gilmer, Haywood’s cannabis analyst headlines “A Formidable California Cannabis Company with Unparalleled Consumer Reach.” Gilmer believes that the new entity will quickly capture market share and consolidate the industry and believes that Jay-Z will help create brand awareness and loyalty through his reach.
Gilmer adds that Jay-Z’s new cannabis brand, named MONOGRAM, had over 800 million impressions within the first 48 hours of the brand’s launch. This was aided by Roc Nation’s combined follower count of 1.48 billion across 275+ artists, athletes, and influencers.
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The company has a number of brands under its banner, as can be seen below in relation to their value proposition.
Gilmer believes that TPCO will be aggressive on the M&A front as he writes, “the California cannabis industry is highly fragmented with the potential for accretive acquisitions.” He adds that management has already identified a list of potential targets that would further their market share and add profitability. The company currently has roughly $300 million earmarked for growth initiatives/M&A.
Gilmer says TPCO’s go-to-market strategy is quite simple. The company intends to initially focus on executing in California by having vertically integrated operations, coupled with omnichannel distribution network and brand awareness/recognition.
Currently, between Caliva and Left Coast Ventures, the company has a monthly extraction capacity of 2,700kgs of distillate. Gilmer writes, “The Parent Company’s key differentiated aspects of its vertically integrated platform are at the branding and distribution stage. The combined companies are expected to have an initial brand portfolio of 17 brands offering over 250 SKU’s.”
Finally, Haywood notes that the company trades at 1.3x 2022 sales and 5.7x 2022 EBITDA, compared to the peer group average of 4.7x 2022 sales and 13.8x EBITDA.
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