JPMorgan has issued a stark warning on Tesla, projecting a potential 60% downside for the electric vehicle giant’s stock through December 2026, following a disappointing first-quarter performance. The bank maintained its Underweight rating with a price target of $145, reflecting ongoing concerns over weak deliveries and broader operational challenges.
The latest downgrade comes after Tesla reported a significant shortfall in Q1 deliveries, a critical metric for the company’s growth trajectory. JPMorgan highlighted a 15% year-over-year decline in energy storage deployments as a further drag on performance, compounding the impact of sluggish vehicle sales. Analysts at the bank adjusted their estimates downward, signaling limited confidence in a near-term recovery.
JPMorgan now anticipates 2026 earnings per share of just $1.80, down from the prior $2.00 estimate and below the $1.95 analyst consensus estimate. 2027 estimates were also dropped, falling to $2.25 from the prior $2.45 EPS estimate.
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Drilling deeper, the delivery miss reflects broader headwinds in the electric vehicle market, where rising competition and softening demand in key regions have pressured Tesla’s dominance. The company’s struggles to ramp up production and navigate supply chain constraints have also weighed on investor sentiment.
Beyond vehicles, the drop in energy storage—a segment once seen as a high-growth area for Tesla—adds another layer of concern. This division, which includes products like Powerwall and Megapack, has failed to offset the core automotive business’s underperformance, leaving Tesla exposed on multiple fronts.
JPMorgan’s bearish outlook also factors in macroeconomic risks, including higher interest rates and potential shifts in consumer spending that could further dampen EV adoption. While Tesla has historically relied on its brand strength and innovation to weather storms, the bank sees these advantages eroding against a backdrop of intensifying rivalry from legacy automakers and emerging players.
With Tesla’s valuation still tied to aggressive growth expectations, any further slippage in key metrics could accelerate the downward pressure through the end of 2026.
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